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Friday, December 5, 2008

Big-12 Championship Preview

One of my keys that I follow when I am writing is backing my statements up. When I decide that I am going to post an article out here, I first find out what I will write about, I get my notebook that is full of side notes about the topic that I choose to write about, and I just write about whatever I know about the subject. If I feel that I need to know more or I do not have enough to create a solid post, I research and read article after article on the subject. At the top of every page of notes, I write in all caps “BACK IT UP” and underline it. I do this to remind myself that it is one thing to have an opinion, it is a complete other thing to prove your opinion, to provide details and examples of what your talking about, throw out stats (nobody can argue numbers), just back it up. It, in a way, ties into Billy Packer’s famous quotes, and one of my favorites, “I may be wrong, but I am never in doubt.” Packer knows what he’s talking about and that is a simply brilliant quote. In sports, team are tagged with certain titles and it is that team’s choice to back the notion up or to just let it hang their and it gets taken right from under you.

Back to subject. In case you weren’t aware of the big college sports weekend ahead, there are some huge games that will decide the layout of the BCS bowls announced on Sunday. One of those games is the Mizzou vs. Oklahoma game that airs on ABC at 8:00 pm. The bad news is I have a Championship basketball game to play in at 8:00 pm tomorrow night.

Although I cannot join the Texas Longhorn fans in watching the game, I can tell you that I am sick and tired of hearing people moan that the right team was not picked in the South division. I mean, come on what’s the point? There was a system in which you pick the team in case of a tie. In this case there was a 3-way tie and it then went down to the team’s BCS rank. Oklahoma had the better rank of the 3 teams and they made it in. End of story. Whether you agree with the whole situation or not, that’s the way it goes. If you wanted in so badly, Texas, you shouldn’t have lost to Tech in Lubbock on a 35 yard, final second, miracle play. If you would ask me, I would tell you that the best team got in and leave it at that.

You have to understand, this is a very hard blog to write keeping in mind that I am a die-hard Mizzou fan and have watched them throw a great opportunity away. It is difficult to admit but I can’t lie, Oklahoma appears to be in the driver’s seat leading to the BCS Championship game. They are in the fast line but let’s not sleep on #20 Mizzou.

Oklahoma has put on an absolute clinic this season, scoring at will. It is a weekly show and, no matter who you are or what team you root for, you gotta love tuning in to see OU bust through teams like it’s nothing. They have literally scored like no other team has.. Ever. Just take a look at the past three games. 61 points vs. Oklahoma State, 65 vs. Texas Tech, 66 vs. Texas A&M, 62 vs. Nebraska. I mean, seriously? Four straight 60+ point games? No way. Yes way, and it has almost become a joke. It is way too easy and, heck, how can you say defense even matters when you just cannot be stopped. For example, the game against OKST.. I sat there and watched Oklahoma score on six straight possessions thinking you gotta be kidding me. OU is averaging 53 points/game and 560 yards/game. With the dynamic offense, a nation’s top-3 o-line, and a defense that can at least hold a team under 60 the question may be asked.. Can they be stopped by anyone? According to the “experts”, not by Mizzou. Vegas has Oklahoma favored by 17 points and who can blame them?

Meanwhile, Missouri, who saw it's national title dream go up in a puff of smoke, or more like a Curtis Lofton big play, in last year's 38-17 Big 12 dream matchup title game loss to Oklahoma, can't stop anyone's passing game, and is coming off a loss to a mediocre Kansas team even though that was the best game I’ve seen this season. The best win this year was over a Nebraska team that hadn't quite hit its stride, the second-best win was against an Illinois team that's not going bowling, and against the two big boys on the schedule from the South, Oklahoma State and Texas, the Tigers lost in back-to-back weeks. Let’s be honest with ourselves here.. Is it possible that my Tigers are a tad bit overrated? In my mind there is a fine line between wasted potential and just straight up overrated and Mizzou is right on it.

So, with that in mind, the game is a blow out right?

Well how about we just keep our pants on here. Does anyone remember the 2003 B12 Championship between #1 OU and Kansas State when Darren Sproles lead the Wildcats to a stunning 35-7 victory? How about the 2001 title game when Chris Simms flushed the Longhorns right down the toilet with about 20 pick-6’s that led to a Colorado victory? Same thing with the Championship games of 1998 (A&M vs. K State) and 1996 (Texas vs. Nebraska). Unlike the SEC Championship which generally follows the chalk, the B12 has a history of wild upsets. Guess what.. Missouri has the potential to do the same exact thing as these other teams have accomplished.

Last year, Mizzou played as the #1 team in the nation and fell under the spotlight. This year’s game isn’t as sexy and, nobody is picking Mizzou even with the 4th best offense in the country averaging over 500 yards/game. Nobody is picking the team with nothing to lose over the team that has everything to lose. Everyone is expecting a 60-point rout but do not sleep on Mizzou. All bias-ness aside, MU has the potential weapons and talent on both sides to weasel their way into a football game. Oklahoma has only won the last three games of the regular season once since 1980. Realistically, Missouri will need its fair share of luck tomorrow going against Bradford with the worst pass defense in the B12 and we didn’t even see the big-3 (Herrell, McCoy, Bradford). With that said, Bradford had trouble with Missouri last year and (unlike the past year) the spotlight is on him and everyone is expecting SAMUEL to perform like the Heisman candidate he is. Very, very similar to last year’s game just switched roles.

It's the official end of the Big 12 campaign after the conference, more specifically the South, saved the college football season. One way or another, it'll be a show with lots of offense and plenty of big plays. It'll be fun no matter what happens. With these two offenses, it has to be.


Mizzou will win if…

...Oklahoma’s linebacking crew struggles. In OU’s only loss of the season to Texas, the Longhorns picked the back-up linebackers apart after the first string was injured and it ultimately led to a Texas victory.
...They can keep Sam Bradford off of the football field. We all know what happens when he is on it, and I can’t see him playing much DB. Missouri needs to ruin his Heisman campaign to have a shot.
...They can convert on 3rd downs (both sides of ball). Missouri has been a wash with 3rd downs on offense and defense. OU was 12 of 18 on 3rd downs against OKST and was one of the reasons they scored 60+.
...They can, of course, spark something in the secondary. If they play as badly on defense as they did in the Kansas game.. Consider it over with fellas.



Oklahoma will win if…

...They don’t let their guard down. If they are looking forward to that Championship game against ‘Bama or Florida then they better get their heads straight before it’s too late or it will be Texas playing them.
...Chase becomes a running back instead of a quarterback. The games that Chase had a significant total of rushing yards were two of the three games that Mizzou has lost so far. He had a 103 yard performance vs. KU and we lost. As well as the 50 yard total against Oklahoma State. If you want to win, Chase, do your job. And that is to say hike and get it into the hands of our playmakers (Maclin, Coffman, etc).
...They simply take what the shaky Tiger defense gives you. The secondary has been in a comma all season. Get the ball and chuck it to wide open defenders and move the ball down field.


Prediction:

Missouri will play well, but not well enough. It'll be a continuous trade of big blow after big blow with the Tigers hanging around after three quarters, but Daniel will make a few key mistakes and Bradford won't. The Sooners will open it up late and Bradford will have his Heisman stats padded enough to answer Tim Tebow's big game earlier in the day against Alabama. Oklahoma is going to BACK UP the notion that they are the team to beat.

58-45, Oklahoma



Please tell me what you think in the comment section below. Thanks!


Justin Hulsey
StLDieHard24@gmail.com
www.thejaystick.blogspot.com

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