FANTASY: Who's Hot and Who's Not

We are a few weeks through the MLB season and things are starting to fall into shape. Just like every year, players start the season hot, and some start the season extremely cold. All you can do is hope you drafted right and don’t end up with a bust. The first month of the season is almost over, that means only five left. For some, the end could not come soon enough. Hopefully it’s not that bad, but here are some players you would kill to have on your team right now. As well as some you would kill yourself if you did own them. Not only will I help you out in that aspect, but I will try to explain why they are doing so well or why they are just flat out struggling.

Who’s HOT

Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals
Pujols is just doing his thing. He is hot right now, but the funny thing is that this is just normal Pujols. His team is in first place and he is certainly the catalyst. He has only swung and missed 11 times this year out of 75 ABs already. When you can do that, you rarely strikeout. In fact, Pujols only strikes out in 9% of his at bats. Here are some stunning stats for The Machine: He swings at only 20% of pitches that are out of the zone and 71% when it is a strike. When Albert does swing at a bad pitch, he makes contact 87% of the time! That number is up 12% from 2008. When he swings at strikes, he hits it 93% of the time.
Pujols is doing well…
… because he isn’t missing. If he swings, he will put it in play. That aspect of his game is considerably better than years past (just when we thought he couldn’t improve).

Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers
I drafted Braun with my first round pick. It was the fourth pick and considered a reach by some. So far, it looks like I am a genius. One of the reasons I took him was because the real genius, Bill James, predicted a 41 HR season from Braun. Ryan is certainly not disappointing James so far. Braun’s OBP is up 145 points from last year, and brought his OPS up 120 pts. He has a .382 BABIP so far. For those of you unfamiliar with that stat, he has a .382 average when he puts the ball in play. I looked through all these players stats and looked which ones were considerably different from past seasons and the one Braun has that caught my eye was his line-drive percentage. A typical All Star player hits a line-drive 17% of the time. Ryan Braun hits a liner 25% of the time so far.
Braun is doing well…
… because he is making consistent solid contact. Even his outs are hit solid. He is locked in right now.

Zach Greinke, Kansas City Royals
In a previous FS post, I said that Greinke had superstar-type potential and my statement is looking prophetic right about now. KC has gotten off to a pretty good start, and Greinke is the one behind it all. His K/9 ratio is up three from last year, he is only averaging one walk per game, and has allowed no home runs so far. He is hitting his spot and doing whatever he wants. Want proof? 48% of his batters have grounded out.
Greinke is doing well…
… because he is locating his pitches. Zach is simply putting it where he wants and, like I’ve always said, a great pitcher beats a great hitter.

Danny Haren, Arizona Diamondbacks
I cringe every time I talk about Haren. If you are not aware, my St. Louis Cardinals traded him a while back when he was a young prospect. The year after, he exploded in his breakout season. A sensitive subject for me to say the least just because how great Haren is. When on, there are only a small handful of pitchers you can even compare to him. He made an interesting decision in the offseason by choosing to use his curve ball again. He dropped it for a couple seasons before using it again this year. 2006 was the last time he used it – his second best win total year. The unfortunate thing about him doing great is the fact that the D’Backs can’t get him a win. He is pounding the mitt, but his team refuses to score for him.
Haren is doing well…
… because he avoiding solid contact. The number of line-drives hits he has had against him is down 5%.


Who's NOT

Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado Rockies
In Colorado, how can a player struggle? Seriously! They are like 12 miles above sea level. It is like playing baseball on the moon. All you have to do is make contact and the ball soars. Tulo was spectacular last season and everything pointed toward the start of an offensive explosion from the young shortstop. I said all he has to do is hit the ball. Well, he is having a hard time doing that. In 2008 he struck out 15% of his Abs. This season, he strikes out 30% of the time. He strikes out more than he hits safely. Kinda sad.
Tulowitzki is struggling…
… because he won’t take the bat off his shoulders. I mentioned the clip he is striking out at… but the scare thing is that he isn’t even swinging. In 2008, he swung at 45% of the pitches he saw. This season, that number is down 10%.

Geovany Soto, Chicago Cubs
Wasn’t this dude the Rookie of the Year? Well he hasn’t exactly lived up to the hype. But who are we kidding? That is the definition of a Flubbie, I mean Cubbie. I guess Soto is just going to suck now instead of sucking in only September and October. When he puts the ball in play, he has a .150 average. In his ’08 campaign that number was hovering around .340. Come on, Soto! Yadier Moline is batting over .300, by the way lol. What is even sadder is that he only has 5 line drives so far.
Soto is struggling…
… because he can’t get the ball out of the infield. Surely those coaches in Chicago can fix a simple groundball problem, right? Here is a staggering number for you… Over half of Soto’s at bats have resulted in a groundball out. Woah.

Francisco Liriano, Minnesota Twins
After Liriano’s unreal second half last season, he came into this season as a legitiment Cy Young candidate. But right now it looks like last year’s first half that got him sent down to AAA ball. His breakout season was in 2006 and it’s obvious he is not doing the same things as his 12-3, 2.16 ERA season. In ’06 he pitched 43% fastballs, 38% sliders, and 19% changeup. So far this year he has pitched 61% fastball, 27% slider, and 11% changeup. So basically he is an entirely different pitcher. The numbers do not lie. Out of all the batters that have got a hit off of him, 22% of them hit a liner into the outfield.
Liriano is struggling…
… because he is relying too much on his fastball, he is not using his best pitch – the slider – like he should be, and is simply making bad decisions. The pitching coach has to be aware of these numbers. I don’t understand why he hasn’t said lay off the fastball and throw that slider.

CC Sabathia, New York Yankees
Heading into draft time, I kept saying Lincecum over Sabathia and everybody thought I was an idiot. Well, not so much. While Lincecum is destroying everything in his path, Sabathia is having a hard time doing anything. He may have sat down all the batters he faced last season, but he is only averaging 3 Ks per outing so far. With that you look at how many guys he has walked, but it is no alarming stat there. This leads me to believe he is just throwing hit-able pitches. He has a similar problem to Liriano. Like I said with Liriano, he was relying way to much on his heater. While he isn’t throwing as many as FL is, Sabathia is still throwing 8% more than last year. I don’t know if you have played baseball yourself, but fastball is generally the easiest to hit. Let’s think this one through… It is the only pitch that is straight. It doesn’t matter how fast it is, it doesn’t move.
Sabathia is struggling…
… because he has been watching Francisco Liriano pitch. Liriano doesn’t lay off that fastball, and neither does Mr. Sabathia. CC needs to chill out, look at what worked last year, and try that. Something is out of whack, and he needs to figure that out before he is killed by Yankee fans.


If you are, unfortunately, an owner of CC, Liriano, Tulo, or Soto, don’t freak out and trade trade trade. Sit them for a week or two and see what happens. A lot of fantasy owners see a big-name player having a hard time and trade them, or even drop them. A month later, they are on this list under WHO’S HOT. Some of the biggest mistakes I have made as a fantasy owner are with this. Trust me; you will kick yourself all the way up to September.

Justin Hulsey

StLDieHard24@gmail.com
FANdemoniumSports.blogspot.com

Ken Griffey Jr.: Welcome Home!

Ah, yes… A good day just got a little better. 19 minutes ago, I received a text stating, “Ken Griffey Jr. is headed back to Seattle after agreeing to a one-year deal with the Mariners.” Is that awesome or what?

The former soon-to-be homerun king will go back to the city that had him on track to being one of – or THE - best players to ever lace up the cleats. With all this A-Rod, and performance-enhancing drugs in general, talk, you can only imagine what it would have been like to watch Griffey bash #755.

He would have too. With the Mariners, KGJ hit a total of 398 homeruns in 11 years (an avg of 37/year). He is going into his 20th season this year, and – at his SEA pace – he would be at #704. If he played a total of 25 years, which is possible without injury, he would have hit 904 home runs… a number that would likely never be touched. He was on pace to set some staggering career numbers, even other than HRs. In 25 seasons, he would have ended up with .297 average, 904 homers (all-time record), 2620 RBIs (atr), 380 steals, etc, etc, etc. The two most prestigious batting records, and then the crazy base running numbers, would make him the best player to ever play the game. All in good ole’ Seattle.

Junior is going back to the place that made him a household name forever. The city that scored him nine MVP awards (five in a row), nine all-stars, seven-time silver-slugger award winner, and 10 gold gloves. Can you say freak?

While there has always been talk of Griffey going back to Seattle, tonight the rumor goes true. Griffey was being actively courted by the Mariners and the Atlanta Braves, and ultimately decided with the Mariners after agonizing over the decision. Griffey was motivated by sentimental reasons toward Seattle, where he received an emotional hero's welcome when he last played there as a Cincinnati Red in 2007, and towards Atlanta for its proximity to home and the desire to be with his family during the season. While he has a better opportunity to win in the ATL, I wanted nothing more than him to return as a Mariner.


As this whole A-Rod BS continues to roll out, we see a good thing with Seattle & Griffey but there are still some interesting things yet to work their selves out.

Manny Ramirez-
It looks as if he will probably remain with the Dodgers. He is asking for a ridiculous amount of money considering his age, but I feel LA will realize they are nothing without him. Others interested include nobody.

Orlando Hudson-
This guy has clearly gone under the radar. It seems like nobody even realizes that he is a FA. He could be a steal for which ever team accquires him. Hudson will start to get desparate and worried now that Spring Training is nearing and I see him being signed very cheap. Arizona has shown no interest in him, so I see him landing in Kansas City or St. Louis.

Orlando Cabrera-
He may be aging, but I expect a few more good years from him. I would say he is a better pick-up than Hudson, but they are both potential risks. It appears as if the White Sox are no longer in need of him and will let him go. The Oakland A’s have shown some serious interest, along with Florida and Toronto.

Ben Sheets-
When he is healthy, he is one of the best pitchers the game has to offer… but come on, it’s Ben Sheets. He spends more time icing his arm than he does icing MLB ball players. He does have some serious stuff, however, and somebody will gladly take him. He says no way Jose to Milwaukee, and I anticipate him signing with Texas within this coming weekend.



Justin Hulsey
StLDieHard24@gmail.com
FANdemoniumsports.blogspot.com