FANTASY: Who's Hot and Who's Not

We are a few weeks through the MLB season and things are starting to fall into shape. Just like every year, players start the season hot, and some start the season extremely cold. All you can do is hope you drafted right and don’t end up with a bust. The first month of the season is almost over, that means only five left. For some, the end could not come soon enough. Hopefully it’s not that bad, but here are some players you would kill to have on your team right now. As well as some you would kill yourself if you did own them. Not only will I help you out in that aspect, but I will try to explain why they are doing so well or why they are just flat out struggling.

Who’s HOT

Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals
Pujols is just doing his thing. He is hot right now, but the funny thing is that this is just normal Pujols. His team is in first place and he is certainly the catalyst. He has only swung and missed 11 times this year out of 75 ABs already. When you can do that, you rarely strikeout. In fact, Pujols only strikes out in 9% of his at bats. Here are some stunning stats for The Machine: He swings at only 20% of pitches that are out of the zone and 71% when it is a strike. When Albert does swing at a bad pitch, he makes contact 87% of the time! That number is up 12% from 2008. When he swings at strikes, he hits it 93% of the time.
Pujols is doing well…
… because he isn’t missing. If he swings, he will put it in play. That aspect of his game is considerably better than years past (just when we thought he couldn’t improve).

Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers
I drafted Braun with my first round pick. It was the fourth pick and considered a reach by some. So far, it looks like I am a genius. One of the reasons I took him was because the real genius, Bill James, predicted a 41 HR season from Braun. Ryan is certainly not disappointing James so far. Braun’s OBP is up 145 points from last year, and brought his OPS up 120 pts. He has a .382 BABIP so far. For those of you unfamiliar with that stat, he has a .382 average when he puts the ball in play. I looked through all these players stats and looked which ones were considerably different from past seasons and the one Braun has that caught my eye was his line-drive percentage. A typical All Star player hits a line-drive 17% of the time. Ryan Braun hits a liner 25% of the time so far.
Braun is doing well…
… because he is making consistent solid contact. Even his outs are hit solid. He is locked in right now.

Zach Greinke, Kansas City Royals
In a previous FS post, I said that Greinke had superstar-type potential and my statement is looking prophetic right about now. KC has gotten off to a pretty good start, and Greinke is the one behind it all. His K/9 ratio is up three from last year, he is only averaging one walk per game, and has allowed no home runs so far. He is hitting his spot and doing whatever he wants. Want proof? 48% of his batters have grounded out.
Greinke is doing well…
… because he is locating his pitches. Zach is simply putting it where he wants and, like I’ve always said, a great pitcher beats a great hitter.

Danny Haren, Arizona Diamondbacks
I cringe every time I talk about Haren. If you are not aware, my St. Louis Cardinals traded him a while back when he was a young prospect. The year after, he exploded in his breakout season. A sensitive subject for me to say the least just because how great Haren is. When on, there are only a small handful of pitchers you can even compare to him. He made an interesting decision in the offseason by choosing to use his curve ball again. He dropped it for a couple seasons before using it again this year. 2006 was the last time he used it – his second best win total year. The unfortunate thing about him doing great is the fact that the D’Backs can’t get him a win. He is pounding the mitt, but his team refuses to score for him.
Haren is doing well…
… because he avoiding solid contact. The number of line-drives hits he has had against him is down 5%.


Who's NOT

Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado Rockies
In Colorado, how can a player struggle? Seriously! They are like 12 miles above sea level. It is like playing baseball on the moon. All you have to do is make contact and the ball soars. Tulo was spectacular last season and everything pointed toward the start of an offensive explosion from the young shortstop. I said all he has to do is hit the ball. Well, he is having a hard time doing that. In 2008 he struck out 15% of his Abs. This season, he strikes out 30% of the time. He strikes out more than he hits safely. Kinda sad.
Tulowitzki is struggling…
… because he won’t take the bat off his shoulders. I mentioned the clip he is striking out at… but the scare thing is that he isn’t even swinging. In 2008, he swung at 45% of the pitches he saw. This season, that number is down 10%.

Geovany Soto, Chicago Cubs
Wasn’t this dude the Rookie of the Year? Well he hasn’t exactly lived up to the hype. But who are we kidding? That is the definition of a Flubbie, I mean Cubbie. I guess Soto is just going to suck now instead of sucking in only September and October. When he puts the ball in play, he has a .150 average. In his ’08 campaign that number was hovering around .340. Come on, Soto! Yadier Moline is batting over .300, by the way lol. What is even sadder is that he only has 5 line drives so far.
Soto is struggling…
… because he can’t get the ball out of the infield. Surely those coaches in Chicago can fix a simple groundball problem, right? Here is a staggering number for you… Over half of Soto’s at bats have resulted in a groundball out. Woah.

Francisco Liriano, Minnesota Twins
After Liriano’s unreal second half last season, he came into this season as a legitiment Cy Young candidate. But right now it looks like last year’s first half that got him sent down to AAA ball. His breakout season was in 2006 and it’s obvious he is not doing the same things as his 12-3, 2.16 ERA season. In ’06 he pitched 43% fastballs, 38% sliders, and 19% changeup. So far this year he has pitched 61% fastball, 27% slider, and 11% changeup. So basically he is an entirely different pitcher. The numbers do not lie. Out of all the batters that have got a hit off of him, 22% of them hit a liner into the outfield.
Liriano is struggling…
… because he is relying too much on his fastball, he is not using his best pitch – the slider – like he should be, and is simply making bad decisions. The pitching coach has to be aware of these numbers. I don’t understand why he hasn’t said lay off the fastball and throw that slider.

CC Sabathia, New York Yankees
Heading into draft time, I kept saying Lincecum over Sabathia and everybody thought I was an idiot. Well, not so much. While Lincecum is destroying everything in his path, Sabathia is having a hard time doing anything. He may have sat down all the batters he faced last season, but he is only averaging 3 Ks per outing so far. With that you look at how many guys he has walked, but it is no alarming stat there. This leads me to believe he is just throwing hit-able pitches. He has a similar problem to Liriano. Like I said with Liriano, he was relying way to much on his heater. While he isn’t throwing as many as FL is, Sabathia is still throwing 8% more than last year. I don’t know if you have played baseball yourself, but fastball is generally the easiest to hit. Let’s think this one through… It is the only pitch that is straight. It doesn’t matter how fast it is, it doesn’t move.
Sabathia is struggling…
… because he has been watching Francisco Liriano pitch. Liriano doesn’t lay off that fastball, and neither does Mr. Sabathia. CC needs to chill out, look at what worked last year, and try that. Something is out of whack, and he needs to figure that out before he is killed by Yankee fans.


If you are, unfortunately, an owner of CC, Liriano, Tulo, or Soto, don’t freak out and trade trade trade. Sit them for a week or two and see what happens. A lot of fantasy owners see a big-name player having a hard time and trade them, or even drop them. A month later, they are on this list under WHO’S HOT. Some of the biggest mistakes I have made as a fantasy owner are with this. Trust me; you will kick yourself all the way up to September.

Justin Hulsey

StLDieHard24@gmail.com
FANdemoniumSports.blogspot.com

This Season's Tampa Bay Rays

The Kansas City Royals have struggled during the past 20 years. We all know that, and except it. The way things have been going for them, nobody is eager to be a Royal. The few fans located in Missouri and Kansas are getting frustrated. Most of them have already abandoned their team. KC is one of the smallest market organizations (25th and 150 million behind NY). It has been a long time since George Brett – when the Royals actually won 90 games a year.

I don’t mean to beat a dead horse here. I am actually setting the stage for some really great news for those proud KC fans. Here it comes… You guys are going to be good. The 1980’s were a long time ago, but be ready to welcome in a new era.

Since the ’94 strike, the Royals have had one winning season, and have averaged 94 losses per year. However, the team that won 56 games in 2005 and last season won 75 is one of those franchises - like the Reds and Giants - that have been designated as this spring's fair-haired risers.

They have been put in the best division for it too. Nobody knows who will take the AL Central crown. All of the teams could be really good, but could also bite the dust. Most are picking the Indians to represent the Central come October, but all five teams could prove their selves worthy.

So let’s break it down starting with their rotation.

We all remember when Zach Greinke was labeled as the one destined to revive Kansas City. He came up, everyone was ready for dominance, and he was a total bust. You can’t argue that. At first, it looked as if he was baseball’s Ryan Leaf. Don’t be fooled though. Last year Greinke surprised most when he logged in an impressive 13-10 record, with a 3.47 ERA, and nearly 190 strikeouts. Some predict him to take home the AL Cy Young award. He is that good and has even more potential (only 25 years old).

Looking at the 2-5 spots in the rotation, we have Gil Meche, Kyle Davies, Brian Bannister, and Luke Hochevar.

Gil Meche is coming off another solid year. Meche was a great wingman to Greinke and notched another sub-4 ERA season. Kyle Davies may be one of the most underrated baseball players out there. If he pitches like he was toward the end of last year, we are looking at another 10-15 win guy. Hochevar reminds me of Greinke with a little less hype. The former #1 pick was rushed to the show too quickly and is now struggling, but do not doubt his sick potential. I say Bannister will get the #5 spot, but it is actually a toss up between Sidney Ponson, Horacio Ramirez, and Bannister. All three of the guys are pretty sub-par, so it is possible that there could be a midseason call up for this position. Maybe Daniel Cortes?

There is little debate as to how the bullpen looks. When you have one of the best closers in the MLB shutting the door in the 9th, you are typically going to be AOK. They also have solid relievers in Farnsworth and Ron Mahay to set it up for Soria. Everybody knows how up and down the ‘pen is year in and year out, but do not expect any real problems here.

The infield is where the Royals will be tried. The will make it or break it with their infield (we will throw catcher in there too). It is full of players who are young, maturing, and possibly ready to explode. The perfect example: Mike Aviles. Last year he came out of nowhere and stunned anyone who actually followed the Royals. In his rookie campaign, he put together a .325 average, to compliment 10 homers and 50+ RBIs. The other highlight of this group would be Alex Gordon. The Nebraska prodigy was, also, forced into the MLB by a bad team, and it hurt him. This could be the year he plays up to par. The other infielders include Mike Jacobs at first, Mark Teahan at second, and Olivo behind the plate.

There is no risk out in the outfield. It is fairly straight forward, and we should know what to expect… but who knows. The three vets that make up the outfield positions include the all-noble Coco Crisp, Jose Guillen, and David DeJesus.

Crisp, brought in from Boston, will finally get his shot at playing every day. He is going to steal all kinds of bases, has a .300 average to boot, and will provide excitement in center. Despite Guillen’s huge decline in the later part of the ’08 season, he still hit 20 homers and almost 100 RBIs on the year. Most say he will be a bust, but anything close to last year’s numbers is great. DeJesus is not the best hitter, not the biggest power threat, nor the fastest kid in the playground. Yet, when you put it all together, you get a guy who is going to be contributing in every category and likely to play all 162 games. Solid players.

The most important factor leading to KC’s possible success lies in the hands of a few players. Gentlemen by the names of Gordon, Aviles, and also Teahan. All, besides Aviles, have been hit and miss. Again, it is all due to the impatience of the organization and bringing them up way too early.

Teahen has also been the focus of a major experiment. He's been playing second base after a career at third and in the outfield. I still think he will be fine. His play with a bat in his hands is what makes people excited. He definitely has it in him to bat .275+, when adding 15+ homeruns, and 75+ RBIs. Best case senerio would be .300, 20, and 90.

Within the AL Central, the Twins, Indians and White Sox are all capable of winning 90 games, but they have some things that will worry some. The Tigers are very hard to read, but could also surprise people with all that offensive firepower.

So if the bullpen holds, they find two starters out of the Brian Bannister/Sidney Ponson/Horacio Ramirez group, and Gordon, Aviles, and Teahen indeed play at the level they should, the Royals can contend and bring life back to a Middle American franchise with a proud tradition worth revisiting.

Jay’s Prediction: 84-78, 2-3 spot in the AL Central

Justin Hulsey

StLDieHard24@gmail.com

FANdemoniumSports.blogspot.com